Harley-Davidson Q2 U.S. retail sales estimate reported by analyst

Harley-Davidson’s second quarter retail sales are tracking growth at 2-3 percent compared to the year-ago quarter, according to a research note provided to Powersports Business by Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder.

The data is taken from Wells Fargo Securities dealer survey results through late May.

“Our survey results are adjusted to account for underrepresented regions of TX, Rocky Mountains (negative weather) potentially offset by likely better CA results,” Conder reports. “Q2 historically the most significant U.S. retail quarter at ~38% of annual sales with May the most active month of the year. We believe momentum from Touring and incremental Road Glide/Street will only partially offset Custom/Sportster market share erosion until the MY2016 release in late August (next major catalyst). While Custom/Sportster families (~55-60% of unit volume) are in need of a refresh, HOG will likely concentrate incremental new product in skus with the most consumer impact (Touring, Softail, outreach) instead of refreshing an entire family. Assuming meaningful MY 2016 innovation, net share losses could begin to reverse in September.”

Conder goes on to report that Wells Fargo Securities applauds “HOG’s no discounting long-term stance. Our survey participants believe an incremental sku would have the most impact in Touring where recent sales growth has been concentrated. Custom/Sportster sales remain difficult, but channel inventories are now in better position. Street is modestly underperforming U.S. dealer expectations early in the season (Q2/Q3 will reveal true potential).”